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“沪港通”:以开放促资本市场改革(组图)

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月19日 14:06:39
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(方)(面)(,随)(着)(沪)(港)(通)(的)(推)(出)(,境)(外)(资)(金)(增)(加)(了)(一)(个)(进)(入)(A股)(市)(场)(的)(通)(道)(,H股)(和)(A股)(市)(场)(在)(某)(种)(程)(度)(上)(合)(二)(为)(一)(。如)(果)(A股)(能)(被)(纳)(入)(MSCI(摩)(根)(斯)(坦)(利)(国)(际)(资)(本)(公)(司)()指)(数)(体)(系)(,很)(多)(境)(外)(资)(金)(目)(前)(超)(低)(配)(中)(国)(股)(票)(的)(状)(态)(就)(会)(有)(所)(改)(变)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,在)(技)(术)(层)(面)(,通)(过)(境)(内)(的)(投)(资)(银)(行)(到)(香)(港)(开)(展)(交)(易)(,所)(需)(的)(技)(术)(储)(备)(要)(求)(比)(较)(高)(,境)(内)(投)(资)(人)(对)(境)(外)(市)(场)(了)(解)(不)(多)(,所)(以)(主)(要)(工)(作)(之)(一)(是)(避)(免)(境)(内)(投)(资)(者)(因)(为)(交)(易)(方)(面)(的)(失)(误)(造)(成)(损)(失)(并)(引)(发)(投)(诉)(。  李)(麟)((上)(海)(浦)(东)(发)(展)(银)(行)(战)(略)(发)(展)(部)(总)(经)(理)():沪)(港)(通)(对)(不)(同)(的)(利)(益)(主)(体)(有)(不)(同)(的)(作)(用)(,对)(中)(国)(A股)(市)(场)(,目)(前)(来)(看)(是)(弊)(大)(于)(利)(,而)(对)(中)(国)(投)(资)(者)(是)(利)(好)(的)(。  林)(采)(宜)((国)(泰)(君)(安)(证)(券)(股)(份)(有)(限)(公)(司)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)():将)(A股)(纳)(入)(全)(球)(的)(MSCI指)(数)(体)(系)(是)(大)(概)(率)(事)(件)(。但)(是)(如)(果)(发)(生)(的)(话)(,不)(等)(于)(中)(国)(的)(A股)(和)(N股)(、H股)(的)(相)(关)(性)(会)(提)(高)(。  中)(国)(的)(宏)(观)(周)(期)(与)(全)(球)(经)(济)(周)(期)(实)(际)(上)(差)(异)(度)(越)(来)(越)(大)(。2000年)(以)(来)(,外)(贸)(对)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(驱)(动)(影)(响)(非)(常)(强)(,因)(为)(中)(国)(制)(造)(业)(发)(展)(和)(全)(球)(市)(场)(需)(求)(是)(高)(度)(相)(关)(的)(。但)(是)(2008年)(以)(后)(,中)(国)(的)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(周)(期)(与)(全)(球)(需)(求)(实)(际)(上)(是)(脱)(钩)(的)(。未)(来)(10年)(,驱)(动)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(核)(心)(因)(素)(将)(不)(再)(是)(外)(贸)(和)(海)(外)(市)(场)(,而)(是)(国)(内)(市)(场)(。过)(去)(5年)(,美)(国)(在)(去)(杠)(杆)(,中)(国)(在)(加)(杠)(杆)(。未)(来)(5年)(,我)(认)(为)(美)(国)(会)(逐)(渐)(加)(杠)(杆)(,但)(中)(国)(即)(使)(不)(去)(杠)(杆)(,至)(少)(也)(不)(会)(加)(杠)(杆)(,央)(行)(已)(经)(明)(确)(了)(这)(个)(观)(点)(。一)(个)(正)(在)(加)(杠)(杆)(周)(期)(中)(的)(国)(家)(和)(一)(个)(在)(去)(杠)(杆)(或)(者)(不)(加)(杠)(杆)(的)(国)(家)(,宏)(观)(周)(期)(是)(非)(常)(不)(同)(的)(。美)(国)(已)(经)(进)(入)(了)(创)(新)(驱)(动)(阶)(段)(,我)(们)(还)(处)(于)(效)(率)(提)(高)(的)(阶)(段)(。  在)(宏)(观)(周)(期)(不)(同)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,上)(市)(公)(司)(的)(盈)(利)(周)(期)(也)(是)(不)(同)(的)(。奠)(定)(牛)(市)(的)(基)(础)(依)(然)(是)(上)(市)(公)(司)(盈)(利)(的)(复)(苏)(。中)(国)(股)(市)(的)(复)(苏)(未)(来)(可)(能)(会)(先)(于)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(的)(复)(苏)(,但)(是)(必)(须)(先)(有)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(的)(复)(苏)(,才)(能)(支)(撑)(起)(牛)(市)(。  对)(于)(机)(构)(投)(资)(人)(和)(高)(净)(值)(客)(户)(来)(说)(,资)(产)(配)(置)(的)(第)(一)(个)(层)(面)(是)(国)(别)(配)(置)(。国)(别)(配)(置)(暗)(含)(着)(对)(货)(币)(汇)(率)(预)(期)(和)(资)(产)(周)(期)(的)(不)(同)(。  所)(以)(A股)(市)(场)(和)(N股)(、H股)(相)(比)(,可)(能)(相)(关)(性)(不)(仅)(不)(会)(提)(高)(,甚)(至)(还)(会)(进)(一)(步)(下)(降)(。但)(这)(不)(妨)(碍)(A股)(成)(为)(国)(际)(投)(资)(者)(手)(中)(越)(来)(越)(重)(要)(的)(资)(产)(配)(置)(盘)(,A股)(在)(全)(球)(投)(资)(者)(的)(资)(产)(盘)(中)(地)(位)(会)(不)(断)(提)(高)(。  “沪)(港)(通)(”:风)(险)(可)(控)(?  主)(持)(人)(:沪)(港)(通)(业)(务)(实)(行)(总)(额)(度)(控)(制)(和)(每)(日)(额)(度)(控)(制)(,并)(将)(采)(取)(资)(金)(闭)(合)(管)(理)(。在)(这)(些)(限)(制)(条)(件)(下)(,沪)(港)(通)(的)(风)(险)(是)(否)(可)(控)(?  李)(麟)(:迈)(出)(沪)(港)(通)(这)(一)(小)(步)(,风)(险)(完)(全)(可)(控)(。我)(个)(人)(认)(为)(,人)(民)(币)(国)(际)(化)(的)(过)(程)(中)(,在)(控)(制)(总)(额)(度)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(在)(品)(种)(的)(选)(择)(上)(,步)(子)(迈)(得)(更)(大)(一)(些)(。  施)(t
娅)((上)(海)(新)(金)(融)(研)(究)(院)(特)(邀)(专)(家)():沪)(港)(通)(专)(门)(设)(置)(了)(独)(具)(特)(色)(的)(资)(金)(闭)(合)(管)(理)(制)(度)(,由)(中)(国)(结)(算)((中)(国)(证)(券)(登)(记)(结)(算)(有)(限)(公)(司)()和)(香)(港)(结)(算)((香)(港)(中)(央)(}P算)(有)(限)(公)(司)()每)(天)(点)(对)(点)(结)(算)(净)(收)(和)(净)(付)(资)(金)(。在)(自)(贸)(区)(环)(境)(下)(,自)(由)(贸)(易)(账)(户)(的)(开)(放)(度)(可)(能)(比)(点)(对)(点)(的)(更)(广)(,上)(海)(黄)(金)(交)(易)(所)(国)(际)(版)(就)(是)(依)(托)(自)(由)(贸)(易)(账)(户)(开)(放)(的)(。此)(类)(账)(户)(的)(开)(设)(,隔)(离)(了)(特)(定)(的)(金)(融)(市)(场)(的)(价)(格)(波)(动)(和)(汇)(率)(波)(动)(之)(间)(的)(关)(系)(,使)(得)(我)(们)(的)(改)(革)(能)(够)(一)(步)(一)(步)(往)(前)(走)(,这)(也)(符)(合)(我)(国)(渐)(进)(式)(开)(放)(的)(路)(径)(。金)(融)(冲)(击)(通)(常)(会)(使)(发)(展)(中)(国)(家)(的)(货)(币)(大)(幅)(度)(贬)(值)(,但)(资)(金)(闭)(合)(管)(理)(不)(会)(影)(响)(到)(对)(其)(他)(市)(场)(的)(溢)(出)(效)(应)(。额)(度)(限)(制)(是)(不)(够)(市)(场)(化)(的)(安)(排)(,因)(为)(会)(影)(响)(投)(资)(者)(最)(后)(下)(单)(,比)(如)(投)(资)(者)(在)(高)(位)(买)(入)(,想)(补)(仓)(,但)(额)(度)(满)(了)(就)(只)(能)(被)(迫)(亏)(损)(。沪)(港)(通)(正)(式)(启)(动)(后)(,可)(以)(取)(消)(额)(度)(限)(制)(。  主)(持)(人)(:沪)(港)(通)(开)(启)(后)(,是)(否)(会)(增)(加)(跨)(境)(资)(金)(流)(动)(的)(风)(险)(?  施)(t
娅)(:沪)(港)(通)(启)(动)(初)(期)(处)(于)(建)(仓)(期)(,香)(港)(建)(A股)(仓)(,内)(地)(建)(港)(股)(仓)(。由)(于)(存)(在)(额)(度)(限)(制)(,在)(建)(仓)(期)(和)(转)(入)(正)(常)(交)(易)(期)(之)(间)(,跨)(境)(资)(金)(流)(动)(总)(量)(相)(对)(于)(中)(国)(整)(个)(金)(融)(市)(场)(微)(不)(足)(道)(,不)(必)(过)(分)(担)(心)(。值)(得)(关)(注)(的)(是)(价)(内)(汇)(率)((impliedexchangerate),我)(们)(应)(该)(对)(汇)(率)(在)(其)(中)(的)(影)(响)(进)(行)(模)(拟)(分)(析)(。  高)(占)(军)(:在)(考)(虑)(境)(外)(资)(金)(对)(境)(内)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(时)(,我)(们)(不)(能)(忽)(略)(QFII、RQFII和)(包)(括)(国)(际)(经)(济)(组)(织)(、境)(外)(央)(行)(在)(内)(的)(其)(他)(境)(外)(资)(金)(。从)(总)(量)(看)(,这)(部)(分)(境)(外)(资)(金)(总)(额)(约)(1万)(亿)(人)(民)(币)(,总)(量)(确)(实)(不)(算)(大)(,但)(对)(境)(内)(资)(本)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(,尤)(其)(是)(对)(债)(券)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(已)(经)(非)(常)(明)(显)(。比)(如)(,债)(券)(市)(场)(从)(今)(年)(2月)(份)(启)(动)(牛)(市)(,在)(此)(之)(前)(,境)(内)(机)(构)(对)(债)(券)(市)(场)(的)(判)(断)(分)(歧)(很)(大)(,大)(部)(分)(不)(看)(好)(当)(时)(的)(市)(场)(,但)(此)(时)(是)(境)(外)(资)(金)(的)(大)(量)(涌)(入)(,启)(动)(了)(牛)(市)(,而)(境)(内)(资)(金)(的)(大)(量)(跟)(进)(则)(要)(到)(3、4月)(份)(了)(。  国)(际)(资)(本)(流)(动)(的)(风)(险)(和)(监)(测)(很)(重)(要)(。数)(据)(显)(示)(,最)(近)(数)(月)(,人)(民)(币)(开)(始)(从)(今)(年)(2月)(底)(、3月)(初)(那)(一)(轮)(贬)(值)(中)(恢)(复)(过)(来)(,趋)(于)(稳)(定)(并)(重)(现)(升)(值)(势)(头)(。同)(时)(,8月)(份)(贸)(易)(顺)(差)(498.3亿)(美)(元)(,实)(际)(使)(用)(外)(资)(金)(额)(72亿)(美)(元)(。然)(而)(,近)(几)(个)(月)(,央)(行)(的)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(一)(直)(增)(速)(较)(慢)(,甚)(至)(是)(负)(增)(长)(。8月)(末)(,金)(融)(机)(构)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(余)(额)(较)(7月)(末)(减)(少)(311.46亿)(元)(,央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(增)(量)(仅)(为)(23亿)(元)(人)(民)(币)(。这)(似)(乎)(说)(明)(有)(资)(金)(流)(出)(,且)(渠)(道)(不)(明)(。对)(此)(现)(象)(,我)(称)(之)(为)(“迷)(失)(的)(资)(金)(”。  对)(于)(这)(部)(分)(资)(金)(的)(去)(向)(,可)(从)(以)(下)(几)(个)(角)(度)(考)(虑)(。首)(先)(,央)(行)(的)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(和)(金)(融)(机)(构)(的)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(口)(径)(不)(同)(,但)(差)(异)(不)(大)(。8月)(末)(外)(币)(存)(款)(6241多)(亿)(美)(元)(,较)(上)(年)(大)(增)(40%以)(上)(,但)(仍)(解)(释)(不)(了)(这)(一)(变)(化)(。所)(以)(要)(考)(虑)(是)(否)(有)(藏)(汇)(于)(民)(的)(成)(分)(。其)(次)(,今)(年)(以)(来)(中)(国)(对)(外)(投)(资)(700亿)(美)(元)(左)(右)(,与)(FDI(外)(商)(直)(接)(投)(资)()的)(数)(量)(相)(当)(。但)(将)(此)(因)(素)(考)(虑)(在)(内)(,仍)(没)(有)(显)(著)(的)(解)(释)(力)(。再)(次)(,人)(民)(币)(贸)(易)(结)(算)(量)(大)(增)(之)(后)(,对)(境)(内)(外)(资)(金)(流)(动)(产)(生)(了)(影)(响)(。另)(外)(,从)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(看)(服)(务)(贸)(易)(逆)(差)(,也)(达)(到)(了)(一)(定)(的)(量)(级)(。但)(去)(除)(上)(述)(两)(部)(分)(仍)(有)(相)(当)(数)(量)(无)(法)(解)(释)(。最)(后)(,通)(过)(跨)(期)(的)(平)(和)(,波)(动)(的)(确)(减)(缓)(了)(一)(些)(,然)(而)(问)(题)(仍)(然)(存)(在)(。  中)(国)(资)(本)(市)(场)(:以)(开)(放)(促)(改)(革)(  主)(持)(人)(:“沪)(港)(通)(”是)(中)(国)(金)(融)(业)(对)(外)(开)(放)(的)(重)(要)(一)(步)(。未)(来)(,中)(国)(资)(本)(市)(场)(开)(放)(与)(改)(革)(的)(重)(点)(有)(哪)(些)(?  施)(t
娅)(:借)(助)(沪)(港)(通)(,中)(国)(金)(融)(业)(的)(对)(外)(开)(放)(走)(出)(了)(半)(步)(。之)(前)(,天)(津)(拟)(推)(出)(港)(股)(直)(通)(车)(,但)(是)(被)(叫)(停)(。这)(次)(启)(动)(的)(沪)(港)(通)(是)(双)(向)(的)(,但)(存)(在)(额)(度)(限)(制)(、资)(金)(的)(闭)(合)(管)(理)(、没)(有)(引)(入)(融)(资)(和)(筹)(资)(功)(能)(等)(限)(制)(条)(件)(,因)(此)(只)(是)(中)(国)(资)(本)(市)(场)(对)(外)(开)(放)(的)(一)(条)(很)(窄)(的)(路)(径)(,通)(过)(订)(单)(路)(由)(安)(排)(的)(方)(式)(,解)(决)(了)(对)(外)(定)(向)(投)(资)(的)(问)(题)(。未)(来)(,中)(国)(金)(融)(业)(对)(外)(开)(放)(应)(该)(更)(广)(。  肖)(风)((民)(生)(通)(惠)(资)(产)(管)(理)(有)(限)(公)(司)(董)(事)(长)():沪)(港)(通)(的)(意)(义)(和)(价)(值)(非)(常)(大)(,这)(一)(点)(毋)(庸)(置)(疑)(。然)(而)(我)(们)(需)(要)(思)(考)(的)(是)(,中)(国)(需)(要)(怎)(样)(的)(国)(际)(化)(?是)(我)(国)(的)(企)(业)(到)(纽)(约)(去)(上)(市)(,让)(美)(国)(的)(投)(资)(银)(行)(做)(承)(销)(,让)(美)(国)(投)(资)(者)(去)(买)(?还)(是)(在)(上)(海)(交)(易)(所)(上)(市)(,让)(中)(国)(的)(投)(资)(银)(行)(发)(展)(这)(些)(客)(户)(,让)(中)(国)(投)(资)(者)(购)(买)(?我)(们)(需)(要)(从)(这)(两)(条)(路)(径)(中)(作)(出)(选)(择)(。自)(上)(世)(纪)(80年)(代)(末)(开)(始)(,我)(们)(终)(于)(把)(上)(海)(办)(成)(了)(中)(国)(A股)(中)(心)(,但)(却)(不)(是)(中)(国)(股)(票)(中)(心)(,因)(为)(还)(有)(H股)(和)(N股)(。目)(前)(,我)(国)(的)(证)(券)(公)(司)(、投)(资)(银)(行)(没)(有)(向)(全)(球)(配)(送)(股)(票)(的)(能)(力)(。  我)(建)(议)(我)(们)(可)(以)(限)(定)(满)(足)(几)(个)(方)(面)(条)(件)(的)(公)(司)(在)(中)(国)(国)(际)(版)(上)(市)(,比)(如)(,对)(于)(主)(营)(业)(务)(和)(经)(营)(场)(所)(在)(中)(国)(、税)(收)(主)(要)(在)(中)(国)(的)(企)(业)(,允)(许)(其)(以)(BVl注)(册)(、VlE运)(营)(的)(方)(式)(在)(中)(国)(国)(际)(版)(上)(市)(。既)(然)(包)(括)(纽)(约)(交)(易)(所)(在)(内)(的)(全)(球)(主)(要)(交)(易)(所)(已)(经)(接)(受)(这)(样)(的)(标)(准)(,中)(国)(的)(交)(易)(所)(也)(可)(以)(接)(受)(这)(样)(的)(上)(市)(标)(。  李)(麟)(:沪)(港)(通)(对)(中)(国)(的)(资)(本)(市)(场)(发)(展)(和)(人)(民)(币)(国)(际)(化)(有)(一)(定)(作)(用)(,而)(中)(国)(金)(融)(对)(外)(开)(放)(的)(核)(心)(是)(人)(民)(币)(国)(际)(化)(。现)(在)(人)(民)(币)(国)(际)(化)(面)(临)(越)(来)(越)(恶)(劣)(的)(内)(外)(部)(环)(境)(。人)(民)(币)(对)(内)(贬)(值)(、对)(外)(升)(值)(的)(拐)(点)(似)(乎)(快)(要)(来)(临)(。一)(旦)(这)(个)(拐)(点)(真)(正)(确)(立)(,人)(民)(币)(国)(际)(化)(就)(会)(面)(临)(巨)(大)(的)(挑)(战)(。  在)(对)(外)(开)(放)(的)(过)(程)(中)(,中)(国)(资)(本)(市)(场)(需)(要)(进)(行)(功)(能)(再)(定)(位)(。资)(本)(市)(场)(在)(人)(民)(币)(国)(际)(化)(的)(过)(程)(中)(能)(够)(发)(挥)(什)(么)(作)(用)(?多)(年)(以)(来)(,我)(国)(资)(本)(市)(场)(制)(度)(建)(设)(中)(,最)(应)(该)(国)(际)(化)(的)(部)(分)(反)(而)(最)(具)(有)(中)(国)(特)(色)(。
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