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融资盘带来行情新特点

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年11月20日 23:26:54
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(  本)(刊)(记)(者)(吴)(晓)(兵)(/文)(
  从)(2014年)(11月)(央)(行)(降)(息)(开)(始)(,A股)(开)(始)(脱)(离)(2012年)(底)(以)(来)(“结)(构)(性)(牛)(市)(”的)(格)(局)(,市)(场)(节)(奏)(明)(显)(加)(快)(。到)(2015年)(1月)(,在)(短)(短)(数)(十)(个)(交)(易)(日)(里)(,由)(温)(和)(上)(升)(到)(暴)(涨)(再)(到)(滞)(涨)(,行)(情)(经)(历)(了)(两)(次)(明)(显)(转)(折)(。
  由)(是)(,大)(盘)(股)(所)(带)(动)(的)(上)(证)(指)(数)(牛)(市)(是)(否)(在)(3400点)(戛)(然)(而)(止)(,以)(及)(创)(业)(板)(能)(否)(继)(续)(走)(出)(独)(立)(行)(情)(,在)(判)(断)(上)(着)(实)(令)(人)(困)(扰)(。
  宏)(观)(环)(境)(总)(体)(有)(利)(股)(市)(
  毫)(无)(疑)(问)(,降)(息)(是)(金)(融)(股)(暴)(涨)(的)(触)(发)(事)(件)(,而)(此)(前)(金)(融)(股)(长)(期)(低)(估)(值)(的)(因)(素)(,被)(降)(息)(所)(造)(成)(的)(短)(期)(巨)(大)(影)(响)(所)(掩)(盖)(,在)(分)(析)(中)(未)(能)(得)(到)(足)(够)(强)(调)(。
  事)(实)(上)(,低)(估)(值)(才)(是)(最)(根)(本)(的)(利)(好)(,是)(行)(情)(起)(来)(的)(必)(要)(条)(件)(。但)(这)(一)(因)(素)(在)(得)(到)(其)(他)(条)(件)(配)(合)(前)(,未)(对)(金)(融)(股)(股)(价)(起)(作)(用)(有)(两)(年)(之)(久)(,而)(投)(资)(者)(的)(记)(忆)(近)(期)(清)(晰)(远)(期)(模)(糊)(,所)(以)(低)(估)(值)(在)(长)(期)(中)(所)(具)(备)(的)(重)(要)(作)(用)(往)(往)(被)(市)(场)(低)(估)(。
  不)(过)(,低)(估)(值)(只)(是)(行)(情)(的)(必)(要)(条)(件)(,离)(开)(当)(前)(的)(宏)(观)(环)(境)(,金)(融)(股)(还)(可)(能)(继)(续)(蛰)(伏)(。引)(发)(行)(情)(的)(另)(一)(个)(重)(要)(条)(件)(,即)(是)(目)(前)(中)(国)(经)(济)(所)(处)(的)(状)(态)(。
  在)(中)(国)(经)(济)(仍)(处)(于)(一)(定)(增)(长)(区)(间)(,而)(没)(有)(出)(现)(失)(速)(的)(前)(提)(下)(,经)(济)(增)(长)(放)(缓)(对)(股)(市)(并)(没)(有)(明)(显)(的)(利)(空)(作)(用)(。相)(反)(,在)(当)(前)(情)(况)(下)(,由)(于)(实)(体)(经)(济)(和)(房)(地)(产)(等)(其)(他)(资)(产)(领)(域)(获)(利)(机)(会)(的)(缺)(乏)(,反)(而)(对)(A股)(形)(成)(支)(撑)(,即)(居)(民)(流)(动)(性)(偏)(好)(变)(化)(利)(好)(股)(市)(。
  另)(一)(方)(面)(,经)(济)(增)(速)(下)(滑)(之)(外)(,出)(现)(了)(人)(民)(币)(兑)(美)(元)(贬)(值)(的)(预)(期)(和)(资)(本)(流)(出)(。市)(场)(普)(遍)(预)(期)(,为)(补)(充)(资)(本)(流)(出)(带)(来)(的)(基)(础)(货)(币)(增)(速)(下)(滑)(,央)(行)(将)(被)(迫)(多)(次)(降)(准)(降)(息)(,这)(也)(被)(市)(场)(视)(作)(流)(动)(性)(的)(利)(好)(因)(素)(。
  也)(就)(是)(说)(,经)(济)(增)(长)(和)(货)(币)(供)(应)(虽)(然)(遭)(遇)(难)(题)(,但)(在)(两)(者)(没)(有)(出)(现)(非)(常)(态)(的)(极)(端)(情)(况)(之)(前)(,股)(市)(将)(仍)(受)(益)(于)(当)(前)(的)(宏)(观)(环)(境)(。
  至)(于)(所)(谓)(中)(国)(资)(产)(的)(“明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(”,目)(前)(看)(来)(为)(时)(尚)(早)(。
  政)(策)(为)(何)(踩)(刹)(车)(
  但)(行)(情)(为)(何)(在)(3400点)(犹)(豫)(不)(前)(?
  首)(先)(是)(估)(值)(上)(升)(到)(了)(比)(较)(合)(理)(的)(程)(度)(,继)(续)(再)(用)(估)(值)(修)(复)(的)(理)(由)(稍)(显)(牵)(强)(。
  其)(次)(,本)(次)(行)(情)(暴)(涨)(虽)(然)(具)(备)(类)(似)(2005年)(-2007年)(牛)(市)(起)(步)(时)(的)(一)(些)(特)(征)(,但)(宏)(观)(背)(景)(迥)(异)(,造)(成)(两)(者)(有)(着)(本)(质)(区)(别)(。在)(现)(象)(上)(,即)(使)(是)(金)(融)(股)(的)(估)(值)(修)(复)(,其)(股)(价)(上)(涨)(也)(表)(现)(为)(资)(金)(推)(动)(,背)(后)(所)(反)(映)(的)(是)(中)(长)(线)(持)(股)(信)(心)(的)(缺)(乏)(。
  这)(种)(行)(情)(的)(外)(在)(表)(现)(与)(过)(去)(两)(年)(的)(创)(业)(板)(行)(情)(如)(出)(一)(辙)(,但)(金)(融)(股)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(所)(需)(资)(金)(量)(则)(远)(远)(高)(于)(创)(业)(板)(,若)(无)(融)(资)(盘)(持)(续)(扩)(大)(的)(推)(动)(,行)(情)(很)(难)(走)(到)(这)(个)(地)(步)(。金)(融)(股)(与)(创)(业)(板)(两)(者)(行)(情)(的)(短)(期)(决)(定)(性)(因)(素)(,简)(要)(来)(说)(就)(是)(融)(资)(盘)(和)(题)(材)(,这)(也)(是)(两)(者)(行)(情)(再)(次)(分)(道)(扬)(镳)(的)(原)(因)(。而)(融)(资)(盘)(扩)(张)(遭)(遇)(政)(策)(阻)(击)(,则)(成)(为)(行)(情)(停)(滞)(的)(直)(接)(理)(由)(。
  金)(融)(监)(管)(者)(之)(所)(以)(如)(此)(忌)(惮)(融)(资)(盘)(的)(快)(速)(扩)(张)(,有)(着)(相)(当)(合)(理)(的)(逻)(辑)(。
  第)(一)(是)(在)(经)(济)(低)(迷)(、通)(过)(商)(业)(银)(行)(向)(企)(业)(输)(血)(的)(间)(接)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(因)(为)(银)(行)(坏)(账)(压)(力)(而)(难)(以)(达)(到)(目)(标)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,以)(及)(在)(国)(企)(改)(革)(需)(要)(大)(力)(推)(动)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,A股)(被)(赋)(予)(前)(所)(未)(有)(的)(重)(要)(使)(命)(。然)(而)(在)(注)(册)(制)(和)(国)(企)(改)(革)(全)(面)(铺)(开)(之)(前)(,A股)(涨)(幅)(过)(度)(并)(不)(被)(金)(融)(监)(管)(者)(所)(乐)(见)(。否)(则)(,待)(政)(策)(真)(正)(需)(要)(行)(情)(配)(合)(之)(时)(,股)(市)(炒)(家)(已)(经)(在)(借)(机)(出)(货)(了)(。
  第)(二)(是)(中)(国)(金)(融)(和)(资)(产)(领)(域)(处)(于)(微)(妙)(的)(弱)(平)(衡)(中)(,其)(中)(一)(个)(领)(域)(若)(在)(短)(期)(内)(过)(热)(,资)(金)(流)(向)(这)(一)(领)(域)(又)(没)(有)(什)(么)(阻)(碍)(,就)(很)(有)(可)(能)(打)(破)(上)(述)(平)(衡)(,对)(整)(个)(系)(统)(造)(成)(扰)(动)(。而)(金)(融)(股)(可)(以)(说)(是)(具)(备)(短)(期)(行)(情)(过)(热)(、资)(金)(流)(动)(便)(利)(这)(两)(个)(条)(件)(的)(唯)(一)(一)(项)(资)(产)(,其)(对)(整)(个)(资)(产)(领)(域)(所)(具)(有)(的)(潜)(在)(黑)(洞)(效)(应)(令)(人)(生)(畏)(。
  融)(资)(盘)(带)(来)(行)(情)(新)(特)(点)(
  但)(由)(于)(前)(述)(一)(系)(列)(利)(好)(股)(市)(的)(因)(素)(,政)(策)(对)(冲)(操)(作)(也)(只)(是)(减)(缓)(了)(融)(资)(盘)(扩)(大)(的)(势)(头)(,未)(能)(完)(全)(阻)(止)(其)(增)(长)(。
  而)(其)(中)(最)(重)(要)(的)(原)(因)(,在)(于)(资)(本)(意)(志)(的)(逐)(利)(本)(性)(,或)(曰)(“动)(物)(精)(神)(”。简)(而)(言)(之)(,当)(前)(A股)(市)(场)(中)(的)(融)(资)(盘)(,特)(别)(是)(金)(融)(股)(融)(资)(盘)(,已)(经)(处)(于)(“输)(不)(起)(”的)(悬)(崖)(边)(缘)(。融)(资)(盘)(推)(动)(股)(价)(的)(反)(身)(性)(过)(程)(一)(旦)(逆)(转)(,不)(同)(期)(限)(、不)(同)(杠)(杆)(比)(例)(层)(层)(叠)(叠)(的)(融)(资)(盘)(就)(将)(出)(现)(踩)(踏)(。须)(知)(1月)(19日)(市)(场)(暴)(跌)(当)(天)(,沪)(市)(7000多)(亿)(元)(的)(融)(资)(余)(额)(只)(不)(过)(减)(少)(了)(140多)(亿)(元)(,大)(约)(2%融)(资)(余)(额)(下)(降)(就)(对)(应)(着)(股)(指)(期)(货)(有)(史)(以)(来)(的)(首)(次)(跌)(停)(,若)(出)(现)(真)(正)(大)(规)(模)(的)(踩)(踏)(,其)(杀)(伤)(力)(怎)(样)(形)(容)(都)(不)(过)(分)(。
  为)(充)(分)(说)(明)(融)(资)(盘)(当)(前)(状)(态)(,从)(下)(列)(数)(据)(进)(行)(分)(析)(:
  到)(2月)(6日)(,从)(仓)(位)(调)(查)(来)(看)(,重)(仓)((80%以)(上)()账)(户)(大)(约)(占)(持)(股)(账)(户)(的)(40%-50%,当)(期)(持)(仓)(账)(户)(为)(5478万)(户)(,其)(中)(上)(海)(3023万)(户)(,以)(此)(计)(算)(沪)(市)(约)(有)(1200万)(-1500万)(户)(重)(仓)(。同)(时)(截)(至)(2014年)(12月)(底)(融)(资)(融)(券)(客)(户)(数)(量)(为)(317多)(万)(户)(,相)(当)(于)(每)(9.54个)(沪)(市)(A股)(持)(仓)(账)(户)(就)(有)(一)(个)(持)(仓)(信)(用)(账)(户)(。逻)(辑)(上)(讲)(,融)(资)(盘)(应)(该)(仓)(位)(很)(重)(,否)(则)(也)(不)(需)(要)(再)(借)(助)(于)(杠)(杆)(加)(仓)(了)(。所)(以)(假)(设)(融)(资)(盘)(的)(重)(仓)(比)(例)(为)(60%,即)(190万)(户)(。平)(均)(每)(个)(信)(用)(账)(户)(的)(融)(资)(额)(为)(35.63万)(元)(,提)(供)(的)(股)(票)(抵)(押)(品)(为)(89.11万)(元)(,平)(均)(担)(保)(比)(例)((股)(票)(占)(抵)(押)(品)(的)(95%)为)(237%。股)(票)(每)(下)(跌)(10%,融)(资)(盘)(价)(值)(下)(跌)(3.56万)(元)(,需)(要)(追)(加)(抵)(押)(品)(价)(值)(8.44万)(元)(;同)(时)(原)(有)(抵)(押)(品)(价)(值)(下)(跌)(8.91万)(元)(。两)(者)(合)(计)(需)(要)(补)(仓)(17.35万)(元)(,才)(能)(继)(续)(保)(留)(融)(资)(盘)(不)(被)(平)(仓)(。补)(仓)(所)(需)(现)(金)(占)(当)(前)(股)(票)(市)(值)(的)(19.4%。上)(述)(计)(算)(自)(然)(不)(够)(精)(确)(,但)(定)(性)(足)(够)(了)(。
  融)(资)(盘)(所)(带)(来)(的)(特)(殊)(性)(,也)(有)(助)(于)(理)(解)(一)(些)(数)(据)(的)(反)(常)(。中)(国)(证)(券)(登)(记)(结)(算)(有)(限)(公)(司)(网)(站)(披)(露)(的)(2008年)(至)(今)(的)(A股)(开)(户)(、持)(仓)(账)(户)(、交)(易)(账)(户)(数)(据)(,对)(行)(情)(顶)(部)(具)(有)(一)(定)(的)(预)(测)(作)(用)(:
  1.2008年)(至)(今)(当)(周)(交)(易)(户)(数)(超)(过)(2500万)(户)(有)(四)(次)(,分)(别)(为)(2009年)(7月)(底)(、2009年)(11月)(底)(、2010年)(11月)(以)(及)(2014年)(12月)(。其)(中)(第)(一)(次)(对)(应)(了)(上)(证)(指)(数)(3478点)(的)(中)(期)(顶)(部)(,第)(三)(次)(对)(应)(了)(中)(小)(板)(的)(中)(期)(顶)(部)(,即)(使)(第)(二)(次)(也)(形)(成)(短)(期)(顶)(部)(。
  2.新)(增)(A股)(开)(户)(数)(的)(高)(点)(有)(三)(次)(,分)(别)(为)(2009年)(7月)(底)(近)(70万)(户)(、2010年)(11月)(约)(45万)(户)(以)(及)(2014年)(12月)(近)(90万)(户)(。
  3.新)(增)(持)(仓)(账)(户)(和)(交)(易)(账)(户)(占)(比)((交)(易)(户)(数)(除)(以)(持)(仓)(户)(数)()也)(形)(成)(与)(新)(增)(开)(户)(相)(同)(的)(三)(个)(高)(点)(、
  以)(上)(述)(数)(据)(进)(行)(预)(测)(的)(逻)(辑)(在)(于)(,A股)(行)(情)(的)(重)(要)(顶)(部)(多)(是)(资)(金)(博)(弈)(的)(结)(果)(,增)(量)(资)(金)((新)(增)(开)(户)(数)()和)(存)(量)(资)(金)((交)(易)(账)(户)(占)(比)()达)(到)(阶)(段)(性)(高)(点)(往)(往)(对)(应)(于)(行)(情)(的)(结)(束)(。
  与)(前)(几)(次)(不)(同)(,在)(2014年)(12月)(上)(述)(指)(标)(见)(顶)(后)(,市)(场)(仍)(意)(犹)(未)(尽)(,其)(原)(因)(就)(在)(于)(以)(前)(没)(有)(的)(融)(资)(盘)(在)(“作)(怪)(”。
  在)(上)(证)(指)(数)(跌)(到)(3050点)(时)(,融)(资)(盘)(事)(实)(处)(于)(悬)(崖)(边)(缘)(,因)(而)(这)(大)(约)(190万)(户)(融)(资)(盘)(,已)(经)(成)(为)(亡)(命)(之)(徒)(,所)(以)(才)(会)(出)(现)(空)(头)(难)(以)(理)(解)(的)(现)(象)(:在)(大)(批)(新)(股)(申)(购)(抽)(走)(资)(金)(,以)(及)(春)(节)(前)(流)(动)(性)(紧)(张)(的)(关)(口)(,尽)(管)(成)(交)(量)(一)(缩)(再)(缩)(,指)(数)(却)(顽)(强)(反)(弹)(。因)(为)(融)(资)(盘)(已)(经)(不)(能)(承)(受)(继)(续)(下)(跌)(,但)(能)(否)(撑)(住)(,以)(及)(春)(节)(前)(是)(否)(大)(量)(出)(逃)(,截)(至)(本)(文)(发)(稿)(时)((2月)(10日)()尚)(未)(确)(定)(。
  技)(术)(走)(势)(所)(反)(映)(的)(未)(来)(可)(能)(
  相)(比)(之)(下)(,创)(业)(板)(行)(情)(的)(逻)(辑)(一)(以)(贯)(之)(,与)(前)(两)(年)(并)(无)(不)(同)(,仍)(在)(题)(材)(驱)(动)(中)(。
  由)(于)(创)(业)(板)(公)(司)(2014年)(业)(绩)(总)(体)(大)(幅)(预)(增)(,股)(价)(再)(上)(台)(阶)(。对)(于)(如)(此)(之)(多)(的)(“成)(长)(股)(”与)(经)(济)(现)(实)(是)(否)(背)(离)(,追)(逐)(短)(期)(价)(差)(的)(投)(资)(者)(自)(然)(可)(以)(视)(若)(无)(睹)(。不)(过)(,创)(业)(板)(公)(司)(不)(约)(而)(同)(的)(业)(绩)(一)(次)(性)(释)(放)(,从)(博)(弈)(的)(角)(度)(看)(也)(发)(出)(了)(危)(险)(的)(信)(号)(。
  创)(业)(板)(与)(金)(融)(股)(股)(价)(之)(间)(的)(跷)(跷)(板)(一)(向)(是)(市)(场)(热)(议)(的)(话)(题)(,如)(果)(一)(定)(要)(预)(测)(其)(强)(弱)(变)(化)(,技)(术)(走)(势)(可)(以)(提)(供)(一)(个)(角)(度)(。
  技)(术)(分)(析)(在)(许)(多)(情)(况)(下)(对)(判)(断)(走)(势)(并)(无)(帮)(助)(,但)(也)(有)(少)(数)(例)(外)(。
  比)(如)(股)(价)(走)(出)(扩)(散)(形)(态)(极)(为)(少)(见)(,因)(为)(这)(是)(投)(资)(者)(极)(度)(情)(绪)(化)(交)(易)(的)(结)(果)(,虽)(然)(投)(资)(者)(在)(贪)(婪)(与)(恐)(惧)(之)(间)(大)(幅)(摇)(摆)(,股)(价)(也)(在)(很)(短)(时)(间)(内)(走)(出)(忽)(高)(忽)(低)(的)(矛)(盾)(走)(势)(。所)(以)(这)(种)(形)(态)(绝)(不)(可)(能)(是)(情)(绪)(低)(迷)(的)(底)(部)(出)(现)(,而)(更)(容)(易)(形)(成)(短)(期)(顶)(部)(。
  上)(证)(指)(数)(最)(近)(一)(个)(月)(正)(是)(走)(出)(了)(以)(3400点)(为)(水)(平)(上)(轨)(、下)(轨)(向)(下)(倾)(斜)(的)(反)(三)(角)(形)(态)(,其)(他)(反)(应)(大)(盘)(股)(走)(势)(的)(诸)(如)(沪)(深)(300、上)(证)(50和)(深)(圳)(成)(指)(,都)(具)(有)(类)(似)(结)(构)(,只)(不)(过)(强)(弱)(稍)(有)(差)(别)(。
  创)(业)(板)(和)(中)(小)(板)(的)(四)(个)(指)(数)((成)(份)(指)(数)(和)(综)(合)(指)(数)()也)(是)(扩)(散)(形)(态)(,但)(跨)(度)(长)(达)(四)(五)(个)(月)(,而)(且)(似)(乎)(没)(有)(走)(完)(。
  如)(此)(,未)(来)(走)(势)(从)(技)(术)(上)(看)(,如)(果)(金)(融)(股)(融)(资)(盘)(顶)(住)(了)(政)(策)(利)(空)(和)(流)(动)(性)(困)(境)(,而)(在)(春)(节)(后)(重)(归)(升)(途)(,其)(行)(情)(反)(而)(有)(限)(,因)(为)(金)(融)(监)(管)(者)(对)(融)(资)(盘)(的)(看)(法)(不)(会)(在)(短)(期)(内)(改)(变)(,难)(免)(再)(度)(阻)(击)(,融)(资)(盘)(总)(要)(面)(临)(清)(算)(的)(一)(刻)(。反)(之)(,若)(行)(情)(继)(续)(下)(跌)(,现)(有)(融)(资)(盘)(被)(清)(洗)(,则)(有)(利)(于)(形)(成)(国)(家)(意)(志)(与)(资)(本)(意)(志)(的)(再)(度)(趋)(同)(,在)(深)(度)(调)(整)(之)(后)(形)(成)(新)(一)(轮)(金)(融)(股)(暴)(涨)(行)(情)(。而)(创)(业)(板)(则)(无)(疑)(处)(于)(探)(顶)(过)(程)(。点)(击)(进)(入)(【股)(友)(会)(】参)(与)(讨)(论)(
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