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伊拉克北部地区公投在即,新石油战争一触即发?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月19日 14:19:08
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(原)(标)(题)(:伊)(拉)(克)(北)(部)(地)(区)(公)(投)(在)(即)(,新)(石)(油)(战)(争)(一)(触)(即)(发)(?
本)(月)(晚)(些)(时)(候)(,伊)(拉)(克)(北)(部)(库)(尔)(德)(自)(治)(区)(将)(举)(行)(独)(立)(公)(投)(。市)(场)(对)(于)(此)(举)(可)(能)(加)(剧)(该)(地)(区)(冲)(突)(的)(担)(忧)(骤)(然)(而)(生)(,因)(为)(伊)(拉)(克)(相)(当)(一)(部)(分)(油)(田)(集)(中)(在)(库)(尔)(德)(自)(治)(区)(。自)(2014年)(夏)(季)(极)(端)(组)(织)(“伊)(斯)(兰)(国)(”开)(始)(横)(扫)(伊)(拉)(克)(以)(来)(,包)(括)(基)(尔)(库)(克)(省)(在)(内)(的)(一)(些)(争)(议)(地)(区)(就)(一)(直)(完)(全)(处)(于)(库)(尔)(德)(地)(方)(武)(装)(控)(制)(之)(下)(。几)(个)(世)(纪)(以)(来)(,库)(尔)(德)(人)(从)(未)(放)(弃)(过)(寻)(求)(建)(立)(自)(己)(国)(家)((所)(谓)(的)(“库)(尔)(德)(斯)(坦)(国)(”)的)(努)(力)(。库)(尔)(德)(人)(目)(前)(主)(要)(分)(布)(在)(伊)(拉)(克)(、伊)(朗)(、土)(耳)(其)(和)(叙)(利)(亚)(4个)(国)(家)(。在)(2003年)(美)(军)(推)(翻)(萨)(达)(姆)(政)(权)(以)(后)(,他)(们)(觉)(得)(建)(国)(鸿)(途)(终)(于)(有)(了)(盼)(头)(。虽)(然)(在)(过)(去)(2年)(多)(的)(时)(间)(里)(,伊)(拉)(克)(政)(府)(军)(和)(库)(尔)(德)(地)(方)(武)(装)(为)(将)(“伊)(斯)(兰)(国)(”势)(力)(逐)(出)(该)(地)(区)(进)(行)(了)(旷)(日)(持)(久)(的)(并)(肩)(作)(战)(,但)(后)(者)(欲)(将)(该)(地)(区)(主)(权)(纷)(争)(升)(级)(的)(做)(法)(,不)(免)(会)(让)(昔)(日)(的)(战)(友)(陷)(入)(兵)(戎)(相)(见)(、反)(目)(成)(仇)(的)(境)(地)(。巴)(格)(达)(当)(局)(已)(经)(明)(确)(对)(即)(将)(于)(9月)(25日)(举)(行)(的)(公)(投)(表)(示)(了)(反)(对)(,总)(理)(阿)(巴)(迪)(直)(言)(:“这)(一)(做)(法)(违)(宪)(、非)(法)(。”周)(二)((9月)(12日)(),伊)(拉)(克)(中)(央)(政)(府)(授)(权)(总)(理)(一)(切)(措)(施)(,确)(保)(国)(家)(统)(一)(和)(领)(土)(完)(整)(。而)(库)(尔)(德)(地)(方)(领)(导)(人)(MassoudBarzani则)(争)(锋)(相)(对)(,誓)(将)(公)(投)(推)(动)(进)(行)(到)(底)(。目)(前)(在)(伊)(拉)(克)(境)(内)(大)(约)(居)(住)(着)(逾)(600万)(库)(尔)(德)(人)(,占)(全)(球)(库)(尔)(德)(人)(口)(总)(数)(的)(约)(20%。按)(照)(当)(地)(法)(律)(,具)(有)(投)(票)(资)(格)(的)(人)(数)(大)(约)(在)(500万)(左)(右)(,毫)(无)(疑)(问)(的)(是)(,他)(们)(中)(的)(绝)(大)(多)(数)(人)(寻)(求)(民)(族)(自)(决)(。包)(括)(美)(国)(、德)(国)(在)(内)(的)(西)(方)(国)(家)(反)(对)(库)(尔)(德)(公)(投)(,认)(为)(此)(举)(将)(削)(弱)(全)(球)(反)(“伊)(斯)(兰)(国)(”力)(量)(,进)(而)(恶)(化)(地)(区)(局)(势)(。但)(以)(色)(列)(方)(面)(则)(对)(此)(表)(示)(支)(持)(,认)(为)(一)(个)(独)(立)(的)(“库)(尔)(德)(斯)(坦)(国)(”有)(望)(成)(为)(以)(色)(列)(和)(伊)(朗)(及)(其)(他)(阿)(拉)(巴)(国)(家)(之)(间)(的)(缓)(冲)(地)(带)(,从)(而)(拓)(展)(以)(色)(列)(的)(安)(全)(空)(间)(。全)(球)(石)(油)(市)(场)(面)(临)(新)(的)(挑)(战)(因)(为)(库)(尔)(德)(独)(立)(公)(投)(而)(可)(能)(引)(发)(的)(地)(区)(冲)(突)(,其)(爆)(发)(点)(无)(疑)(将)(来)(自)(石)(油)(。按)(照)(伊)(拉)(克)(石)(油)(部)(长)(卢)(艾)(比)(的)(说)(法)(,该)(国)(是)(OPEC组)(织)(第)(二)(大)(产)(油)(国)(,当)(前)(的)(石)(油)(产)(能)(在)(432万)(桶)(/日)(。但)(他)(也)(承)(认)(,中)(央)(政)(府)(对)(于)(库)(尔)(德)(地)(区)(原)(油)(生)(产)(情)(况)(缺)(乏)(可)(靠)(的)(数)(据)(资)(料)(。美)(国)(石)(油)(巨)(头)(雪)(弗)(龙)(公)(司)(2012年)(与)(库)(尔)(德)(地)(方)(政)(府)(签)(署)(相)(关)(协)(议)(后)(,就)(一)(直)(在)(该)(地)(区)(经)(营)(着)(自)(己)(的)(业)(务)(。巴)(格)(达)(当)(局)(则)(对)(此)(大)(为)(不)(满)(,并)(警)(告)(称)(:“任)(何)(未)(经)(中)(央)(政)(府)(批)(准)(在)(该)(国)(北)(部)(地)(区)(经)(营)(业)(务)(的)(外)(国)(石)(油)(公)(司)(将)(被)(列)(入)(黑)(名)(单)(。”而)(目)(前)(还)(有)(来)(自)(包)(括)(挪)(威)(、奥)(地)(利)(、英)(国)(在)(内)(的)(不)(少)(国)(家)(企)(业)(在)(伊)(拉)(克)(有)(经)(营)(石)(油)(业)(务)(,他)(们)(均)(认)(为)(公)(投)(可)(能)(会)(对)(他)(们)(开)(展)(业)(务)(产)(生)(或)(多)(或)(少)(的)(影)(响)(。咨)(询)(机)(构)(VeriskMaplecroft分)(析)(师)(TorbjornSoltvedt认)(为)(:“鉴)(于)(当)(前)(的)(油)(价)(水)(平)(,库)(尔)(德)(地)(区)(寻)(求)(独)(立)(的)(经)(济)(基)(础)(是)(相)(当)(不)(稳)(固)(的)(。”伦)(敦)(智)(库)(ChathamHouse伊)(拉)(克)(问)(题)(专)(家)(RenadMansour则)(在)(采)(访)(中)(称)(:“不)(排)(除)(库)(尔)(德)(地)(方)(政)(府)(利)(用)(公)(投)(来)(向)(巴)(格)(达)(当)(局)(讨)(价)(还)(价)(、争)(取)(更)(多)(权)(利)(的)(可)(能)(。”返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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