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CPI已经连续4个月下行

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月19日 14:08:16
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(  8月)(9日)(,国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(公)(布)(的)(7月)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,CPI同)(比)(上)(涨)(1.8%;PPI同)(比)(下)(降)(1.7%。
  “CPI这)(个)(水)(平)(比)(较)(适)(度)(,通)(胀)(加)(剧)(的)(风)(险)(比)(较)(小)(,同)(时)(也)(没)(有)(低)(于)(1%而)(产)(生)(通)(缩)(的)(压)(力)(。”中)(国)(民)(生)(银)(行)(首)(席)(研)(究)(员)(温)(彬)(对)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(表)(示)(,“这)(属)(于)(温)(和)(的)(通)(胀)(,同)(时)(PPI指)(标)(也)(在)(好)(转)(,降)(幅)(也)(在)(收)(窄)(。”
  自)(4月)(份)(以)(来)(,CPI已)(经)(连)(续)(4个)(月)(的)(下)(行)(:从)(2.3%降)(至)(目)(前)(的)(1.8%。目)(前)(通)(胀)(低)(于)(年)(初)(确)(定)(的)(3%的)(控)(制)(目)(标)(,市)(场)(有)(分)(析)(称)(货)(币)(政)(策)(有)(宽)(松)(的)(空)(间)(。
  “CPI对)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(影)(响)(不)(是)(特)(别)(大)(。”东)(方)(证)(券)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(邵)(宇)(表)(示)(,“通)(胀)(不)(高)(是)(货)(币)(政)(策)(宽)(松)(的)(一)(个)(必)(要)(条)(件)(,而)(不)(是)(充)(分)(条)(件)(。货)(币)(政)(策)(会)(不)(会)(变)(得)(更)(积)(极)(,还)(取)(决)(于)(其)(它)(因)(素)(的)(影)(响)(。”
  央)(行)(8月)(5日)(发)(布)(的)(《二)(季)(度)(货)(币)(政)(策)(报)(告)(》文)(章)(称)(,若)(频)(繁)(降)(准)(会)(大)(量)(投)(放)(流)(动)(性)(,促)(使)(市)(场)(利)(率)(下)(行)(,加)(上)(其)(信)(号)(意)(义)(较)(强)(,容)(易)(强)(化)(对)(政)(策)(放)(松)(的)(预)(期)(,导)(致)(本)(币)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(加)(大)(,外)(汇)(储)(备)(下)(降)(。市)(场)(则)(解)(读)(称)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(短)(期)(内)(难)(现)(宽)(松)(。
  “虽)(然)(通)(胀)(持)(续)(下)(行)(,但)(货)(币)(政)(策)(空)(间)(并)(未)(打)(开)(,根)(本)(原)(因)(在)(于)(通)(胀)(预)(期)(的)(上)(升)(。”招)(商)(宏)(观)(分)(析)(师)(闫)(玲)(点)(评)(称)(。
  通)(胀)(短)(期)(走)(弱)(长)(期)(坚)(挺)(
  从)(同)(比)(看)(7月)(份)(CPI上)(涨)(1.8%。食)(品)(中)(猪)(肉)(价)(格)(同)(比)(上)(涨)(16.1%,涨)(幅)(回)(落)(14.0个)(百)(分)(点)(,影)(响)(CPI同)(比)(上)(涨)(约)(0.42个)(百)(分)(点)(。非)(食)(品)(中)(,医)(疗)(保)(健)(、教)(育)(服)(务)(、居)(住)(价)(格)(同)(比)(分)(别)(上)(涨)(4.3%、2.3%、1.6%,合)(计)(影)(响)(CPI同)(比)(上)(涨)(约)(0.81个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  中)(信)(固)(收)(研)(究)(团)(队)(称)(,7月)(CPI同)(比)(上)(涨)(1.8%,较)(前)(值)(回)(落)(主)(要)(是)(受)(食)(品)(类)(价)(格)(中)(猪)(价)(大)(幅)(回)(落)(,而)(非)(食)(品)(价)(格)(拉)(升)(作)(用)(相)(对)(不)(足)(影)(响)(,通)(胀)(短)(期)(走)(弱)(长)(期)(坚)(挺)(。
  该)(团)(队)(进)(一)(步)(表)(示)(,7月)(食)(品)(价)(格)(整)(体)(继)(续)(呈)(现)(回)(落)(,主)(要)(受)(到)(基)(数)(效)(应)(影)(响)(,高)(基)(数)(效)(应)(对)(食)(品)(价)(格)(的)(困)(扰)(仍)(在)(持)(续)(,但)(非)(食)(品)(价)(格)(的)(趋)(势)(性)(上)(涨)(则)(有)(望)(在)(未)(来)(对)(CPI构)(成)(持)(续)(支)(撑)(。因)(此)(,在)(短)(期)(基)(数)(效)(应)(逐)(渐)(衰)(退)(后)(,通)(胀)(压)(力)(将)(在)(四)(季)(度)(增)(加)(,重)(新)(回)(到)(2%以)(上)(的)(水)(平)(。7月)(PPI同)(比)(下)(降)(1.7%,再)(次)(下)(跌)(但)(是)(降)(幅)(收)(窄)(。中)(信)(固)(收)(团)(队)(称)(,PPI环)(比)(由)(降)(转)(升)(,同)(比)(继)(续)(收)(窄)(且)(超)(预)(期)(,与)(近)(期)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(持)(续)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(态)(势)(、7月)(PMI原)(材)(料)(价)(格)(指)(数)(的)(上)(涨)(表)(现)(一)(致)(,且)(进)(一)(步)(印)(证)(制)(造)(业)(复)(苏)(之)(势)(。
  此)(外)(,PPI降)(幅)(收)(窄)(将)(持)(续)(,PPI对)(CPI的)(传)(导)(将)(更)(明)(显)(,从)(而)(推)(动)(通)(胀)(温)(和)(上)(行)(。
  货)(币)(政)(策)(空)(间)(未)(打)(开)(
  自)(4月)(份)(以)(来)(,CPI已)(经)(连)(续)(4个)(月)(下)(行)(,尤)(其)(是)(5月)(份)(CPI回)(落)(之)(后)(,部)(分)(市)(场)(人)(士)(开)(始)(担)(忧)(“通)(缩)(”。“如)(果)(CPI只)(有)(1.8%,意)(味)(着)(实)(际)(利)(率)(还)(有)(可)(能)(进)(一)(步)(下)(降)(,给)(货)(币)(政)(策)(操)(作)(留)(出)(了)(空)(间)(。”国)(泰)(君)(安)((17.880,0.12,0.68%)首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(林)(采)(宜)(称)(。
  不)(过)(林)(采)(宜)(同)(时)(指)(出)(,目)(前)(货)(币)(政)(策)(需)(要)(考)(虑)(的)(因)(素)(非)(常)(多)(元)(,且)(不)(同)(的)(政)(策)(目)(标)(之)(间)(还)(存)(在)(冲)(突)(,比)(如)(利)(率)(下)(行)(,汇)(率)(压)(力)(就)(会)(增)(加)(。
  温)(彬)(表)(示)(,利)(率)(主)(要)(还)(是)(考)(虑)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(、汇)(率)(等)(因)(素)(。虽)(然)(目)(前)(CPI回)(落)(在)(2%以)(内)(,但)(如)(果)(从)(名)(义)(利)(率)(来)(看)(,存)(款)(利)(率)(变)(成)(负)(利)(率)(的)(可)(能)(性)(相)(对)(较)(小)(。近)(期)(由)(于)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(预)(期)(的)(放)(缓)(,人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(有)(所)(稳)(定)(,但)(下)(半)(年)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(预)(期)(可)(能)(卷)(土)(重)(来)(,有)(可)(能)(改)(变)(人)(民)(币)(相)(对)(平)(静)(的)(状)(态)(。
  招)(商)(宏)(观)(闫)(玲)(称)(,虽)(然)(通)(胀)(持)(续)(下)(行)(,但)(货)(币)(政)(策)(空)(间)(并)(未)(打)(开)(,根)(本)(原)(因)(在)(于)(通)(胀)(预)(期)(的)(上)(升)(。央)(行)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(取)(向)(并)(不)(取)(决)(于)(当)(前)(通)(胀)(的)(走)(势)(更)(取)(决)(于)(预)(期)(的)(变)(化)(。
  央)(行)(在)(二)(季)(度)(货)(币)(政)(策)(执)(行)(报)(告)(也)(特)(别)(提)(到)(,通)(胀)(预)(期)(尚)(不)(稳)(定)(,工)(业)(品)(价)(格)(回)(升)(较)(快)(。
  其)(报)(告)(还)(称)(,若)(频)(繁)(降)(准)(会)(大)(量)(投)(放)(流)(动)(性)(,促)(使)(市)(场)(利)(率)(下)(行)(,加)(上)(其)(信)(号)(意)(义)(较)(强)(,容)(易)(强)(化)(对)(政)(策)(放)(松)(的)(预)(期)(,导)(致)(本)(币)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(加)(大)(,外)(汇)(储)(备)(下)(降)(。市)(场)(则)(解)(读)(称)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(短)(期)(内)(难)(现)(宽)(松)(。
  “最)(近)(两)(三)(年)(的)(实)(践)(证)(明)(,宽)(松)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(对)(拉)(动)(实)(体)(经)(济)(增)(长)(作)(用)(有)(限)(。”林)(采)(宜)(表)(示)(,“现)(在)(中)(国)(面)(临)(的)(问)(题)(,财)(政)(政)(策)(比)(货)(币)(政)(策)(效)(果)(会)(好)(一)(些)(,财)(32政)(政)(策)(的)(结)(构)(性)(特)(征)(相)(对)(比)(较)(明)(显)(。”
  林)(采)(宜)(认)(为)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(宽)(松)(后)(流)(动)(性)(在)(金)(融)(圈)(空)(转)(,银)(行)(信)(贷)(中)(投)(向)(实)(体)(经)(济)(的)(比)(重)(越)(来)(越)(小)(,而)(同)(业)(往)(来)(不)(断)(增)(长)(,流)(动)(性)(并)(没)(有)(流)(向)(实)(体)(经)(济)(。
  “降)(息)(的)(概)(率)(比)(较)(小)(,但)(是)(降)(准)(有)(空)(间)(也)(有)(可)(能)(。”温)(彬)(表)(示)(。温)(彬)(认)(为)(,降)(准)(并)(不)(是)(宽)(松)(预)(期)(,而)(是)(基)(础)(货)(币)(投)(放)(减)(少)(的)(一)(个)(被)(动)(的)(应)(对)(措)(施)(。
  从)(去)(年)(11月)(份)(到)(现)(在)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(连)(续)(负)(增)(长)(,为)(了)(对)(冲)(基)(础)(货)(币)(减)(少)(,央)(行)(连)(续)(采)(用)(逆)(回)(购)(+MLF的)(操)(作)(方)(式)(。央)(行)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,6月)(末)(基)(础)(货)(币)(余)(额)(为)(28.9万)(亿)(元)(,同)(比)(下)(降)(1.3%,
  央)(行)(发)(布)(的)(《货)(币)(政)(策)(执)(行)(报)(告)(》称)(,中)(央)(银)(行)(流)(动)(性)(供)(给)(方)(式)(出)(现)(变)(化)(。具)(体)(而)(言)(,2015年)(上)(半)(年)(主)(要)(通)(过)(降)(低)(法)(定)(存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(率)(供)(给)(流)(动)(性)(,2016年)(上)(半)(年)(则)(主)(要)(通)(过)(公)(开)(市)(场)(、中)(期)(借)(贷)(便)(利)(等)(货)(币)(政)(策)(操)(作)(供)(给)(流)(动)(性)(。
  央)(行)(统)(计)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,2016年)(上)(半)(年)(再)(贷)(款)(新)(增)(3.1万)(亿)(元)(。但)(市)(场)(预)(计)(,要)(实)(现)(13%的)(M2增)(速)(,基)(础)(货)(币)(仍)(有)(缺)(口)(,仍)(需)(降)(准)(提)(高)(货)(币)(乘)(数)(来)(保)(证)(M2增)(速)(。
  “从)(这)(个)(角)(度)(讲)(,降)(准)(关)(键)(看)(下)(一)(阶)(段)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(的)(情)(况)(。如)(果)(进)(一)(步)(下)(降)(,降)(准)(就)(有)(空)(间)(,也)(有)(可)(行)(性)(。”温)(彬)(说)(。
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