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宋清辉:A股市场出现分化行情的深层次原因

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年11月20日 22:05:12
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(蓝)(筹)(股)(依)(旧)(强)(势)(
从)(板)(块)(表)(现)(来)(看)(,A股)(市)(场)(在)(8月)(2日)(依)(旧)(整)(体)(呈)(现)(出)(二)(八)(分)(化)(行)(情)(,前)(期)(表)(现)(抢)(眼)(的)(蓝)(筹)(股)(依)(然)(保)(持)(强)(势)(,中)(小)(创)(则)(表)(现)(低)(迷)(。
交)(易)(行)(情)(显)(示)(,在)(8月)(2日)(,券)(商)(信)(托)(、钢)(铁)(、有)(色)(以)(及)(煤)(炭)(等)(板)(块)(涨)(幅)(居)(前)(,而)(上)(述)(板)(块)(也)(正)(是)(在)(盘)(中)(助)(力)(上)(证)(综)(指)(突)(破)(3300点)(的)(中)(坚)(力)(量)(。具)(体)(来)(看)(,券)(商)(信)(托)(板)(块)(涨)(幅)(最)(大)(,上)(涨)(1.62%。在)(31只)(券)(商)(信)(托)(板)(块)(个)(股)(中)(,有)(25只)(上)(涨)(,第)(一)(创)(业)(更)(是)(强)(势)(涨)(停)(,中)(国)(银)(河)(也)(大)(涨)(7.74%。需)(要)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,第)(一)(创)(业)(在)(近)(三)(个)(交)(易)(日)(累)(计)(涨)(幅)(已)(经)(高)(达)(21.51%,期)(间)(成)(交)(金)(额)(高)(达)(83亿)(元)(。“券)(商)(股)(最)(近)(表)(现)(良)(好)(,由)(于)(券)(商)(股)(往)(往)(对)(行)(情)(的)(反)(应)(灵)(敏)(,券)(商)(股)(走)(强)(往)(往)(是)(行)(情)(走)(强)(的)(标)(志)(。”杨)(德)(龙)(如)(是)(说)(。
与)(此)(同)(时)(,周)(期)(股)(依)(旧)(表)(现)(强)(势)(。受)(行)(业)(景)(气)(度)(大)(幅)(提)(升)(的)(影)(响)(,钢)(铁)(、煤)(炭)(有)(色)(等)(行)(业)(上)(市)(公)(司)(今)(年)(上)(半)(年)(经)(营)(业)(绩)(均)(出)(现)(大)(幅)(好)(转)(迹)(象)(,基)(于)(良)(好)(的)(业)(绩)(预)(期)(,周)(期)(股)(在)(近)(期)(也)(备)(受)(市)(场)(投)(资)(者)(的)(青)(睐)(。以)(新)(钢)(股)(份)(为)(例)(,在)(近)(20个)(交)(易)(日)(累)(计)(涨)(幅)(已)(经)(高)(达)(38.06%。据)(新)(钢)(股)(份)(7月)(25日)(披)(露)(的)(2017年)(半)(年)(度)(业)(绩)(预)(告)(显)(示)(,公)(司)(预)(计)(今)(年)(上)(半)(年)(实)(现)(的)(归)(属)(净)(利)(润)(为)(5亿)(元)(至)(6亿)(元)(,较)(上)(年)(同)(期)(的)(约)(1.1亿)(元)(大)(幅)(增)(长)(。
形)(成)(鲜)(明)(对)(比)(的)(是)(,中)(小)(创)(则)(依)(然)(表)(现)(疲)(软)(。截)(止)(8月)(2日)(收)(盘)(,深)(证)(成)(指)(收)(于)(10469.34点)(,下)(跌)(0.53%,创)(业)(板)(指)(收)(于)(1724.83点)(,下)(跌)(0.93%。另)(外)(,沪)(深)(两)(市)(在)(8月)(2日)(共)(有)(8只)(跌)(停)(股)(,其)(中)(多)(数)(为)(中)(小)(创)(个)(股)(。
在)(著)(名)(经)(济)(学)(家)(宋)(清)(辉)(看)(来)(,A股)(市)(场)(出)(现)(这)(种)(分)(化)(行)(情)(有)(内)(在)(的)(深)(层)(次)(原)(因)(。“一)(是)(在)(经)(济)(开)(始)(复)(苏)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,煤)(炭)(、钢)(铁)(、水)(泥)(等)(传)(统)(行)(业)(的)(业)(绩)(也)(开)(始)(复)(苏)(,而)(中)(小)(创)(却)(在)(经)(过)(市)(场)(爆)(炒)(之)(后)(,没)(有)(基)(本)(面)(的)(有)(力)(支)(撑)(,进)(入)(偃)(旗)(息)(鼓)(局)(面)(。二)(是)(在)(监)(管)(趋)(严)(环)(境)(下)(,投)(机)(炒)(作)(、内)(幕)(交)(易)(等)(违)(规)(违)(法)(行)(为)(得)(到)(遏)(制)(,投)(机)(资)(金)(纷)(纷)(撤)(出)(中)(小)(创)(,转)(向)(因)(大)(量)(发)(行)(新)(股)(而)(显)(得)(‘相)(对)(稀)(缺)(’的)(蓝)(筹)(股)(中)(去)(。”宋)(清)(辉)(如)(是)(说)(。
结)(构)(性)(行)(情)(仍)(将)(持)(续)(
在)(北)(京)(一)(家)(小)(型)(投)(资)(机)(构)(负)(责)(人)(看)(来)(,A股)(市)(场)(以)(蓝)(筹)(股)(为)(主)(的)(结)(构)(性)(行)(情)(已)(经)(展)(开)(,并)(且)(预)(计)(仍)(将)(持)(续)(下)(去)(。“本)(轮)(行)(情)(很)(明)(显)(的)(就)(是)(价)(值)(投)(资)(受)(青)(睐)(,不)(是)(垃)(圾)(股)(、概)(念)(炒)(作)(股)(一)(起)(涨)(,而)(且)(是)(绩)(优)(股)(、大)(蓝)(筹)(稳)(步)(向)(上)(,应)(该)(会)(继)(续)(保)(持)(这)(种)(态)(势)(。”该)(投)(资)(机)(构)(负)(责)(人)(称)(。交)(易)(行)(情)(显)(示)(,在)(近)(50个)(交)(易)(日)(,上)(证)(综)(指)(的)(累)(计)(涨)(幅)(为)(6.81%。而)(从)(上)(证)(综)(指)(的)(K线)(图)(来)(看)(,近)(期)(一)(直)(呈)(现)(缓)(慢)(“爬)(坡)(”的)(稳)(步)(上)(涨)(态)(势)(。
“大)(盘)(向)(3300点)(指)(数)(关)(口)(发)(起)(冲)(击)(,而)(3300点)(的)(关)(口)(是)(前)(期)(反)(弹)(的)(高)(点)(,在)(这)(个)(关)(口)(上)(市)(场)(可)(能)(会)(有)(一)(定)(的)(反)(复)(,不)(过)(,在)(八)(月)(份)(上)(证)(指)(数)(突)(破)(这)(个)(关)(口)(并)(进)(一)(步)(向)(上)(拓)(展)(空)(间)(的)(可)(能)(性)(是)(非)(常)(大)(的)(。”在)(杨)(德)(龙)(看)(来)(,大)(盘)(后)(续)(站)(上)(3300点)(的)(可)(能)(性)(很)(大)(,而)(且)(一)(旦)(站)(稳)(3300点)(,有)(望)(进)(一)(步)(打)(开)(上)(涨)(的)(空)(间)(。杨)(德)(龙)(同)(时)(认)(为)(,上)(半)(年)(由)(于)(受)(到)(金)(融)(监)(管)(升)(级)(以)(及)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(的)(影)(响)(,A股)(出)(现)(了)(比)(较)(大)(的)(调)(整)(,市)(场)(呈)(现)(出)(结)(构)(性)(的)(行)(情)(,只)(有)(上)(证)(50和)(沪)(深)(300这)(些)(大)(盘)(蓝)(筹)(股)(在)(上)(半)(年)(表)(现)(突)(出)(,也)(只)(有)(消)(费)(股)(一)(枝)(独)(秀)(。但)(是)(在)(下)(半)(年)(,随)(着)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(的)(改)(善)(,以)(及)(投)(资)(者)(信)(心)(的)(回)(升)(,外)(资)(、保)(险)(、基)(金)(、券)(商)(资)(管)(等)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(会)(纷)(纷)(选)(择)(加)(仓)(A股)(,养)(老)(金)(也)(开)(始)(入)(市)(,市)(场)(的)(增)(量)(资)(金)(会)(比)(较)(多)(,所)(以)(下)(半)(年)(市)(场)(的)(表)(现)(将)(会)(明)(显)(的)(好)(于)(上)(半)(年)(。
上)(海)(一)(位)(私)(募)(人)(士)(同)(样)(认)(为)(,上)(证)(综)(指)(后)(续)(站)(上)(3300点)(将)(是)(大)(概)(率)(事)(件)(。“就)(目)(前)(来)(看)(,周)(期)(股)(下)(半)(年)(的)(行)(业)(景)(气)(度)(仍)(可)(能)(保)(持)(高)(位)(,这)(也)(为)(煤)(炭)(、有)(色)(等)(蓝)(筹)(股)(下)(半)(年)(的)(经)(营)(业)(绩)(提)(供)(了)(保)(证)(。经)(营)(业)(绩)(的)(持)(续)(向)(好)(,则)(使)(得)(蓝)(筹)(股)(有)(了)(进)(一)(步)(上)(行)(的)(动)(力)(。”该)(私)(募)(人)(士)(如)(是)(说)(。杨)(德)(龙)(同)(样)(认)(为)(,现)(在)(周)(期)(股)(一)(旦)(启)(动)(,很)(可)(能)(不)(会)(是)(一)(个)(阶)(段)(性)(的)(行)(情)(,毕)(竟)(“一)(带)(一)(路)(”、PPP的)(项)(目)(最)(后)(都)(会)(落)(在)(基)(建)(上)(。宋)(清)(辉)(也)(认)(为)(,蓝)(筹)(股)(的)(投)(资)(价)(值)(越)(来)(越)(受)(到)(投)(资)(者)(的)(认)(可)(,尤)(其)(是)(蓝)(筹)(股)(近)(期)(给)(投)(资)(者)(带)(来)(了)(很)(好)(的)(赚)(钱)(效)(应)(,利)(于)(提)(升)(投)(资)(者)(对)(后)(市)(继)(续)(做)(多)(的)(积)(极)(预)(期)(。
“近)(期)(部)(分)(蓝)(筹)(股)(在)(上)(涨)(的)(过)(程)(中)(出)(现)(了)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(大)(举)(扫)(货)(的)(情)(形)(,机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(通)(常)(是)(中)(长)(期)(持)(股)(,大)(举)(增)(仓)(说)(明)(对)(蓝)(筹)(股)(后)(续)(行)(情)(依)(然)(看)(好)(。”上)(述)(投)(资)(机)(构)(负)(责)(人)(称)(。
不)(过)(,虽)(然)(多)(位)(业)(内)(人)(士)(表)(示)(对)(A股)(的)(结)(构)(性)(行)(情)(继)(续)(看)(好)(,但)(仍)(提)(示)(了)(后)(期)(可)(能)(存)(在)(的)(风)(险)(。“3300点)(是)(一)(个)(重)(要)(的)(心)(理)(预)(期)(关)(口)(,在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(也)(存)(在)(很)(大)(的)(阻)(力)(,在)(阻)(力)(位)(出)(现)(反)(复)(行)(情)(很)(正)(常)(。”上)(述)(私)(募)(人)(士)(称)(。此)(外)(,该)(私)(募)(人)(士)(认)(为)(,目)(前)(来)(看)(,蓝)(筹)(股)(已)(经)(存)(在)(一)(定)(的)(阶)(段)(性)(涨)(幅)(,存)(在)(较)(大)(的)(获)(利)(回)(吐)(压)(力)(,也)(有)(短)(暂)(休)(整)(的)(需)(求)(。只)(有)(在)(完)(成)(消)(化)(整)(理)(之)(后)(,蓝)(筹)(股)(才)(有)(望)(再)(度)(带)(领)(沪)(指)(上)(行)(。原)(标)(题)(:沪)(指)(盘)(中)(创)(“熔)(断)(”以)(来)(新)(高)(返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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